美联储“量化紧缩终结”是一场静默的流动性反转

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's transition from a shrinking balance sheet to a liquidity stabilizing anchor marks a key point in the normalization of monetary policy in the post-pandemic era [1] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Management - The Federal Reserve announced the end of its quantitative tightening (QT) plan effective December 1, 2025, ceasing the active reduction of its securities holdings [1] - The total assets of the Federal Reserve stood at $6.54 trillion as of October 22, 2025, down from a peak of $8.96 trillion in April 2022, maintaining a ratio of approximately 22% of nominal GDP [1] QT Process Review - QT began on June 1, 2022, amid the highest inflation since December 1981, with a maximum monthly reduction of $95 billion in liquidity from the financial system [2] - The pace of QT was adjusted multiple times, with the monthly reduction slowing to approximately $38.5 billion by April 2025 [2] Balance Sheet Structure - The holdings of U.S. Treasury securities decreased from a peak of $5.77 trillion in 2022 to $4.20 trillion by October 2025, while MBS holdings fell from $2.74 trillion to $2.07 trillion [3] - Significant interruptions in the QT process occurred during the banking crises in March 2023 and due to seasonal tax payments in January 2025 [3] Monetary Market Pressure Signals - Key indicators in the monetary market showed stress, including a significant drop in the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) balance, which fell from $2.55 trillion to $219 billion [4] - The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) and interest on excess reserves (IOER) spread widened, indicating increased volatility in short-term financing markets [4] Policy Adjustment Details - The FOMC unanimously agreed to end QT, with a focus on reinvesting the principal payments from maturing securities into short-term T-bills [6] - The Federal Reserve aims to align its balance sheet with banking reserve needs and nominal GDP growth, indicating a shift towards a more dynamic management approach [6] Impact of Reinvestment on Liquidity - The end of QT allows for the reinjection of funds into the financial system, which is expected to lower long-term interest rates and improve liquidity conditions [7] - The reinvestment strategy is projected to lead to a monthly balance sheet expansion of $25 billion to $35 billion due to the natural reduction of MBS holdings [8] Bond Market Reaction - The bond market reacted swiftly to the end of QT, with a notable decline in the yields of 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities [9] - The narrowing of swap spreads indicates a renewed interest in trading strategies that bet on the convergence of Treasury yields and swap rates [9] Mortgage and Corporate Financing - The housing market is expected to benefit from declining long-term interest rates, with forecasts suggesting a drop in 30-year fixed mortgage rates [10] - Corporate financing conditions are improving, with a significant increase in investment-grade corporate bond issuance and a reduction in high-yield bond spreads [11] Currency and Bitcoin Trends - The U.S. dollar weakened significantly following the announcement, with the dollar index experiencing its largest single-day drop since July 2024 [12] - Bitcoin's price showed volatility post-announcement, reflecting mixed market sentiment regarding future liquidity conditions [13] Policy Framework Adjustment - The end of QT signifies a deeper evolution in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework, moving towards a model that adjusts reserves in line with economic activity [14] - Economic data supports a cautious easing path, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts in 2026 [14] 2025 Outlook - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is expected to stabilize around $6.54 trillion until the end of 2025, with a potential shift to net purchases of Treasury securities in early 2026 [15] - The overall liquidity improvement is anticipated to positively impact various sectors, including real estate and small business financing, while putting pressure on the dollar [15]