首华燃气(300483)：产量同比大增112% 静待业绩拐点到来

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and a reduction in net loss for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 2.037 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 95.91% [1] - The natural gas production in the Shilou West Block saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 112%, contributing to the overall revenue growth [2] - The upcoming winter heating season is expected to drive natural gas demand and prices, potentially marking a turning point for the company's performance [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.037 billion yuan, with a net loss of 1.619 million yuan, showing a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 699 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.97%, and a net loss of 9.9872 million yuan, which is a reduction in loss by 4.291 million yuan year-on-year [2] Production and Sales Growth - The company’s natural gas production increased by 112% year-on-year, with purchased gas volume rising by 69% and sales volume increasing by 96% [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising natural gas prices as the winter heating season approaches, with significant increases in demand from urban gas and industrial sectors [2] Future Outlook - Unconventional gas sources, such as coalbed methane, are projected to become important growth drivers for natural gas supply in China, with the company positioned near significant reserves [3] - The Shilou West Block is expected to see rapid production growth, with natural gas output projected to reach 900 million cubic meters and 1.2 billion cubic meters in 2025 and 2026, respectively, compared to 469 million cubic meters in 2024 [3] - The company anticipates a synergistic growth in volume and efficiency due to favorable policies and decreasing costs [3] Earnings Projections - The company’s estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.15 yuan, 1.26 yuan, and 2.31 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 89.86X, 11.03X, and 6.00X based on the closing price on October 30, 2025 [4]