2025房地产行业年度报告发布：“好城市+好房子”蕴含结构性机会

Core Insights - The real estate industry is crucial for stabilizing domestic demand, with the market expected to regain stability by 2025 as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] Policy Analysis - Since the second half of 2021, the real estate policy has shifted towards "stopping the decline and stabilizing" with approximately 3,000 optimization policies introduced since 2022 [2] - Key financial policies include a reduction in the first home down payment to 15% starting May 2024, and a cumulative decrease in the 5-year LPR by 1.15 percentage points to 3.5% since 2022 [2] - The current policy environment is described as the most accommodative in history, particularly regarding demand-side policies [2] Market Trends - In the first nine months of 2025, new home sales in 100 cities decreased by 6% year-on-year, indicating a weakening market effect [3] - As of September 2025, the available residential inventory in 50 representative cities was 310 million square meters, down 2.9% from the end of 2024, with a clearance cycle of 19.9 months [3] Risk Assessment - The real estate market is still some distance from a complete "stop of decline," with risks not fully resolved [4] Regional Dynamics - There is significant variation in housing demand across cities, with first-tier cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen experiencing population growth, while Beijing and Shanghai have seen declines [5] - The demand for larger homes (90-144 square meters) is increasing, with 40% of new home sales in key cities falling within this range [6] Investment Focus - Real estate companies are increasingly focusing on core cities for land acquisition, with major firms like China Overseas Land & Investment and Greentown China concentrating their investments in cities like Shanghai and Beijing [7] - The land sale revenue in first- and second-tier cities has seen significant year-on-year growth, while third- and fourth-tier cities remain weak [7] - The top 20 cities accounted for approximately 61% of residential land sale revenue in the first nine months of 2025, indicating a trend towards urban concentration [7]