每经热评｜白酒业交出近十年“最差季报” 至暗时刻或许正是光明到来的前奏

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is currently experiencing a significant downturn, referred to as its "darkest hour," with many companies reporting steep declines in profits, including a 92.55% drop in net profit for Kuozi Jiao [1][2] - This downturn is characterized as the worst quarterly report in the past decade for the industry, prompting varied reactions from market participants, ranging from skepticism to cautious optimism [2][5] - The industry is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to a more stable and mature development cycle, indicating a shift in investment logic towards value-based considerations [2][3] Industry Performance - The third-quarter performance of A-share liquor companies for 2025 revealed a general trend of declining profits, with leading company Kweichow Moutai reporting over 130 billion yuan in revenue but at a growth rate of only 6.25%, the lowest in nearly a decade [1][2] - The report highlights a significant drop in net profits for many regional liquor companies, with some experiencing declines close to 100% year-on-year [1] Market Reactions - Despite the poor performance, the market has shown resilience, with stocks like Gujing Gongjiu rising over 7% following the release of the disappointing earnings, indicating a potential recovery phase [4][5] - The initial shock from the earnings report has shifted to a more rational assessment of the industry's long-term value, suggesting that the current downturn may present opportunities for investment [4][5] Consumer Behavior - Although overall demand growth has slowed, high-end liquor and collectible old liquor maintain strong demand, providing a solid foundation for the industry [4] - The business models of leading liquor companies continue to benefit from addictive consumption patterns, scarcity, and cultural premiums, which help sustain high profit margins [4] Long-term Outlook - The current downturn is seen as a necessary phase for the industry to refine its business models and eliminate excess, ultimately leading to a more resilient market [3] - The ability of the industry to navigate through this cycle is expected to enhance its risk resistance and stable dividend attributes, which are crucial for long-term investment considerations [3][4]