摩根资产管理蒋先威：通过全球多元配置捕捉结构性机会

Core Viewpoint - The current global inflation is in a moderate range, allowing for a loosening of monetary policy, but the market still faces multiple uncertainties, particularly geopolitical risks. A diversified global asset allocation strategy is recommended to capture structural opportunities while managing risks [1]. Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - Major economies are expected to maintain stable growth this year, providing a solid foundation for global equity assets to continue rising [1]. - Non-U.S. markets are showing relative attractiveness, with non-U.S. stocks outperforming U.S. stocks in the first three quarters of the year, potentially due to declining trust in U.S. dollar assets [1]. Group 2: Fixed Income and Emerging Markets - The Federal Reserve's restart of the rate-cutting cycle presents capital gain opportunities for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, while narrowing credit spreads enhance the investment value of U.S. investment-grade credit bonds [2]. - Emerging market dollar bonds are also attractive under a generally optimistic macro backdrop [2]. - Historically, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have often led to positive performance in global equity markets, with emerging markets showing higher upward elasticity compared to others [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - A diversified global asset allocation strategy is deemed prudent in the face of ongoing market uncertainties, focusing on both equity fundamentals and defensive assets like bonds and gold to hedge risks [3]. - The strategy aims to reduce single-market risks and find investment anchors to navigate through market cycles [3].