跨境ETF热度居高不下 溢价风险需警惕

Core Insights - Cross-border ETFs have become one of the hottest investment categories in the secondary market, with total scale exceeding 895 billion yuan as of October 31, marking an increase of over 110% compared to the end of 2024 [1][2] - The premium rates of cross-border ETFs are rising, with many products tracking U.S. and Japanese stocks showing premiums between 3% and 9%, and some popular products exceeding 17% [1][2] - The surge in cross-border ETF popularity is attributed to strong performance in the U.S. tech sector and the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 31, the total scale of cross-border ETFs has surpassed 895 billion yuan, up from approximately 424 billion yuan at the end of 2024, indicating a rapid growth trajectory [1] - The second quarter of this year saw cross-border ETF scale at about 565.5 billion yuan, which jumped to approximately 884 billion yuan by the third quarter [1] - The cross-border ETF category has recorded over 50% growth in scale for three consecutive quarters, becoming the fastest-growing category among passive equity products [2] Group 2: Premium Rates - Over 25 cross-border ETFs have premium rates above 3%, with many tracking indices like the Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 [2][3] - The Invesco Nasdaq Technology ETF has a premium rate exceeding 17%, with its scale growing over 35% from approximately 9.3 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to about 12.6 billion yuan [3] - The Korean Semiconductor ETF has seen its market price increase by over 90% this year, with a current premium rate exceeding 8% [2][3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Risks - High premiums reflect investor optimism regarding overseas market prospects, with fund managers expressing a positive outlook in their quarterly reports [4] - Multiple fund management companies have issued warnings about premium risks associated with various ETFs, including the Nasdaq Technology ETF and Nikkei 225 ETF [4][5] - The high premium phenomenon is influenced by QDII quota restrictions, leading investors to buy on the secondary market when primary market purchases are limited [5][6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The dual mechanism of secondary market trading and primary market subscription for ETFs allows for potential arbitrage, but QDII quota limitations can lead to price discrepancies [5] - Recent tightening of subscription limits for several funds tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices has contributed to the current high premium environment [5] - Market sentiment and the scarcity of subscription quotas have shifted the focus from asset fundamentals to speculative trading dynamics [5][6]