三大人民币汇率指数全线上行，人民币逐渐走出“独立行情”

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center indicates a significant appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against various currency indices, marking a trend of independent appreciation that is not solely reliant on the depreciation of the US dollar [1][5][6]. Currency Indices Summary - The CFETS RMB Index reached 97.61, up 0.06 week-on-week, the highest since April 2025 [1][2]. - The BIS currency basket RMB Index reported 103.87, increasing by 0.23 week-on-week, also a peak since April 2025 [1][2]. - The SDR currency basket RMB Index stood at 92.26, with a week-on-week rise of 0.35, marking a new high since April 2025 [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB exchange rate exhibited a mixed trend, with a slight increase of 0.04% for onshore RMB and 0.05% for offshore RMB over the week [5]. - The onshore RMB reached a peak of 7.0955 against the US dollar, the highest since November 2024 [5]. - The RMB's appreciation trend is becoming clearer, with a year-to-date depreciation of the US dollar by 8% and a 2.9% appreciation of the offshore RMB against the US dollar [5][6]. Catalysts for RMB Appreciation - Key factors driving the recent RMB appreciation include positive developments in US-China trade negotiations, narrowing interest rate differentials, and stronger-than-expected export performance [6]. - The effective RMB exchange rate is seen as returning to a "reasonable" range, supported by low inflation and strong nominal exchange rate competitiveness [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the RMB may continue to appreciate, with potential targets for the USD/RMB exchange rate at around 7.0 under baseline scenarios and 6.7 in optimistic scenarios [6][8]. - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a flexible approach to exchange rate policies, which could further support the RMB's strength [8].