Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a short-term oscillation, with prices fluctuating around $3996.90 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.11% [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - On October 29, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, but Chairman Powell indicated that a further cut in December is not guaranteed, leading to a decrease in market expectations for another rate cut from 85% to 71%-74.7% [2] - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trade Relations - Positive signals from U.S.-China trade negotiations, including a reduction in tariffs from 57% to 47%, have bolstered bilateral relations and reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - The potential for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has also diminished the attractiveness of gold, prompting investors to shift towards higher-risk assets [2] - Recent data shows that gold ETFs (SPDR) have seen a cumulative reduction of 19.74 tons, indicating a shift in market sentiment [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Price Projections - The gold market has shown a downward trend, with prices hovering around the $4000 mark, and further declines are anticipated, potentially testing support levels between $3850 and $3800 per ounce [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $4050-$4070, with a stronger resistance at $4120, which must be breached for a potential recovery in prices [3] - Historical patterns suggest that gold typically experiences a pullback of 15%-20% during bull markets, and the current 11% decline remains within a reasonable range [3] - Investors are advised to exercise patience and await clear signals of a market bottom before making any significant moves [3]
国际黄金多头梦碎4000！ 降息预期遭鹰派阻击
Jin Tou Wang·2025-11-03 03:12