【央行圆桌汇】美联储降息路径生变（2025年11月3日）

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The People's Bank of China is advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi and researching foreign exchange futures, aiming to develop the Renminbi derivatives market and promote its trading with neighboring and Belt and Road countries [1] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut following September's meeting [1] - The European Central Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2%, indicating no urgent need for policy adjustments as inflation has reached its target [2] - The Bank of Japan has kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, with expectations of gradual inflation increases [2] - The Bank of Canada has also reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, continuing its trend of rate cuts [2] Market Observations - Nomura Securities has canceled its expectations for another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, following the Fed's recent rate decision and Powell's press conference [4] - The market currently estimates a 72% probability of another rate cut by the end of the year, down from approximately 91% prior to the Fed's decision [5] - Analysts from Barclays and other institutions warn that traders may be underestimating the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England [5] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde has signaled that there will be no rate cuts in the coming months, reinforcing the rationale for maintaining current rates [6]