陶冬：美联储利率政策转向模糊

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the policy interest rate to 3.75%–4.0% and will stop quantitative tightening from December 1, indicating a focus on maintaining market liquidity [1][2] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate policies, with some members opposing further rate cuts [2] - The U.S. economy is growing at approximately 3.9%, but inflation remains a concern, complicating the decision-making process for interest rate adjustments [2] Group 2 - Silver has decoupled from gold recently, with silver prices rising while gold continues to decline, driven by a strong dollar and reduced geopolitical risks [3][4] - Silver's dual financial and industrial attributes make it particularly valuable in the context of the green energy transition, with significant demand from the solar and electric vehicle industries [4][5] - The historical gold-to-silver ratio is currently at 82, which is still high compared to the typical range of 50–70, suggesting potential for silver to catch up, although the primary drivers for precious metal price increases are financial rather than industrial [5][6]