智通财经网·2025-11-03 05:53Core Viewpoint - Macquarie has raised the target price for China Duty Free Group (01880) to HKD 90, maintaining an "Outperform" rating, citing improvements in the company's Hainan business in October [1] Financial Performance - The conversion rate and average transaction size in Hainan have improved, leading to a projected 0.5 percentage point year-on-year increase in gross margin when excluding low-margin electronic device sales [1] - The company's Q3 sales decline has narrowed to 0.4% year-on-year, which is better than Macquarie's growth expectations [1] - Operating profit decreased by 7.5%, a significant improvement compared to a 26.5% decline in Q2 [1] Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Macquarie has lowered net profit expectations for FY2025 and FY2026 by 13% and 5.9% respectively, primarily due to the inclusion of non-operating items and actual data from Q3 2025 [1] - Revenue forecasts for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 have been raised by 0.6%, 4%, and 9.6% respectively, reflecting actual data from Q3 2025 and the recovery of sales in Hainan duty-free stores [1] Margin and Profitability Outlook - Gross margin expectations for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 have been reduced by 0.4, 0.8, and 0.6 percentage points respectively, mainly due to an increase in the proportion of low-margin products [1] - Operating profit margin expectations for FY2025 and FY2026 have been lowered by 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points respectively, attributed to actual data from Q3 2025 and the downward revision of gross margin expectations [1]