有色板块盘中调整，关注 “家里有矿，年内涨超有色”的矿业ETF（561330）布局机会

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal mining sector is experiencing a correction, but the mining ETF (561330) has shown a year-to-date increase of over 80%, indicating potential for re-entry after the pullback [1]. Group 1: Copper Market Insights - The copper market is facing supply disruptions, with Antofagasta, a major Chilean copper producer, announcing that its 25-year copper production may only meet the lower guidance limit due to inflation-related capital expenditure cuts [3]. - Several projects, including Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg, have lowered their medium-term production guidance by nearly 500,000 tons, leading to a significant reduction in copper supply growth compared to last year [3]. - The mid-term copper supply is expected to remain tight, providing upward support for copper prices [3]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - After a rapid increase over the past two months, gold prices are experiencing heightened volatility, but the long-term upward trend remains intact [3]. - Factors such as excessive money supply, fiscal deficit monetization, and global geopolitical instability are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The combination of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, increased macroeconomic uncertainty abroad, and a global trend towards de-dollarization is expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [3]. Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Outlook - According to Dongfang Securities, the non-ferrous metals sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance, resource strategic importance, and the transformation of old and new industries [4]. - Industrial metals like copper are gaining attention due to improved supply-demand dynamics, while strategic resources such as lithium and rare earths are seeing sustained demand growth amid the energy transition [4]. - Overall, the non-ferrous metals industry is benefiting from structural supply-demand contradictions and the overlapping demands of new and old industries, exhibiting independent operational characteristics [4]. Group 4: Mining ETF (561330) Performance - The mining ETF (561330) has outperformed the CSI Non-Ferrous Index by nearly 10% year-to-date as of October 31, 2025, due to its concentrated holdings in leading companies [5]. - The ETF tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, which consists of 37 components, with the top ten stocks accounting for 7.26% of the index, indicating a more precise capture of market trends compared to the broader index [5]. - The higher concentration of gold, copper, and rare earths in the mining ETF, which makes up 54.9% of the index, enhances its responsiveness to favorable catalysts in these sectors [8].