短期供应扰动仍在 棕榈油期价上方压力延续

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures market is experiencing fluctuations, with recent data indicating an increase in production and exports, but facing pressure from high domestic oilseed inventories and uncertain policies in Indonesia [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 3, the palm oil futures market showed a decline, with the main contract opening at 8732.00 CNY/ton and fluctuating between a high of 8754.00 CNY and a low of 8638.00 CNY, reflecting a drop of approximately 1.36% [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Producers Association (SPPOMA) reported a month-on-month increase in palm oil yield by 4.50%, oil extraction rate by 0.20%, and production by 5.55% for the period of October 1-31, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Price Influences - Indonesia's Ministry of Trade set the reference price for crude palm oil at $963.75 per ton for November, slightly higher than October's price of $963.61 per ton [1]. - Amspec, an independent inspection agency in Malaysia, noted that palm oil exports for October 1-31 reached 1,501,945 tons, up 4.31% from the previous month [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Donghai Futures indicated that palm oil has entered a technically oversold phase after consecutive declines, suggesting increased risks for short positions. Despite short-term production pressures, the seasonal destocking trend remains unchanged [1]. - Industrial factors such as disappointing domestic production and sales data, uncertainties surrounding Indonesia's biodiesel policies, and high domestic oilseed inventories are expected to continue exerting pressure on palm oil prices in the short term [2].