宏观积极情绪主导下 沪铝延续上行通道偏强运行

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows a mixed performance, with aluminum futures experiencing a slight upward trend, influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks led to a significant decrease in the market's expectations for a rate cut in December [1] - The recent meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders has positively impacted market sentiment regarding economic cooperation [1] Supply Dynamics - As winter approaches, northern regions are entering a production restriction phase, which is expected to affect the production of electrolytic aluminum, although the actual decline in output will take time to manifest [1] Demand Dynamics - Improved macroeconomic sentiment is boosting consumption expectations, particularly in sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, which is driving demand for aluminum products [1] Market Outlook - The positive macro sentiment is expected to dominate the aluminum market, although the fundamental support remains limited. Domestic inventory levels are average, and the spot market response is muted [1] - Short-term forecasts suggest that aluminum futures will continue to operate within a strong upward channel, with resistance levels looking towards the high point of November 2024 [1]