Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a high-level correction, with a weekly decline of 2.65%, closing at $4003.23 per ounce, despite a 3.76% increase in October, marking the third consecutive month of gains [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in gold prices was attributed to a reduction in the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset due to easing trade tensions and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [1][4]. - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% but indicated that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, leading to a shift in market expectations [2][3]. - The market anticipates that the probability of a December rate cut has decreased from 83% to 65% following the Fed's recent statements [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, making private sector data crucial for assessing labor market and inflation trends [3]. - Important upcoming data releases include the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment changes, and consumer confidence surveys, which will influence market expectations for future Fed policy [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China have contributed to a decline in gold prices, with gold dropping nearly $500 from its recent high [4]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in the Middle East and South America, continue to provide some support for gold prices, as traditional hedging against uncertainty remains relevant [5][6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified at $4030-$4060 per ounce, with key resistance at $4090-$4115 per ounce; support levels are at $3950-$3900 per ounce and key support at $3800-$3750 per ounce [6]. - Domestic gold futures have shown significant volatility, with resistance seen at 930-950 CNY per gram and support at 900-890 CNY per gram [6].
黄金时间·一周金市回顾：美联储鹰派降息叠加贸易局势好转 金价将延续调整格局
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-11-03 07:07