美联储“裱糊”困境引发无序震荡 美债市场年末不确定性或增长

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. bond market is at a crossroads of monetary policy shifts and fiscal sustainability, facing unprecedented complexities due to diverging views within the Federal Reserve and increasing market uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year [2]. - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve, with some members advocating for larger rate cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates, indicating a lack of consensus [2][5]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated significantly, dropping from 90% to approximately 70% [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Data - U.S. inflation remains stubbornly high, with September inflation reaching its highest level since January, driven by rising prices of essential goods [3]. - The ongoing government shutdown has hindered the collection of critical economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [3]. - Tariff policies are contributing to rising consumer costs, with estimates suggesting that consumers bear 50% to 70% of the total tariff costs [3]. Group 3: U.S. Debt and Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $35 trillion, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 143%, a historical high [5]. - Concerns over high fiscal deficits and excessive bond issuance are leading some investors, like Bill Gross, to sell U.S. Treasury futures, anticipating rising yields [5]. Group 4: Market Volatility and Investment Strategies - The bond market is expected to experience increased volatility due to multiple factors, including Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and the upcoming presidential election [6]. - Investors are adjusting their strategies in response to market uncertainties, with suggestions to shift towards longer-term bonds to mitigate exposure to short-term policy fluctuations [6].