港口库存持续累积 预计铁矿石期货高位承压运行

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for black metals is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in iron ore prices, which are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Iron ore futures opened at 801.0 CNY/ton and showed a decline, with a maximum of 801.5 CNY and a minimum of 778.0 CNY, resulting in a drop of 2.07% [1]. - The overall performance of iron ore is characterized by weak market sentiment and a downward oscillation [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - According to Galaxy Futures, the supply side remains high while domestic demand is weakening, leading to increased iron ore supply and reduced demand, which is expected to keep prices under pressure [1]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) noted that global shipments are at high levels, while domestic arrivals are decreasing, contributing to a continuous increase in port inventories [1]. - The demand side shows a significant decline in iron and steel production, with steel mills reaching new lows in profitability, indicating potential further production cuts and weakened support for iron ore prices [1][2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Recommendations - The real estate sector's performance remains poor, with weak sales and construction data, while steel exports show resilience but face trade protection challenges from some countries [2]. - The central bank's moderately loose monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle contribute to market volatility [2]. - Investment advice suggests holding short positions in the current market environment [2].