克而瑞地产研究：前三季度代建渗透率达7.23%再创新高 二线城市占比84%成“主战场”

Core Insights - The penetration rate of entrusted construction projects in commodity housing continues to rise, reaching 7.23% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] - The development trends vary across different city tiers, with only second-tier cities showing an upward trend in penetration rates, while first-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities have experienced declines [1] - Leading entrusted construction companies are showing strong expansion intentions, indicating a likely continued increase in market penetration rates in the future [1] Penetration Rate Trends - The penetration rate for entrusted construction projects was 5% in Q1 2025, down 0.44 percentage points year-on-year; it surged to 8.7% in Q2, up 2.37 percentage points year-on-year, marking a new quarterly high; and in Q3, it was 7.12%, up 1.24 percentage points year-on-year [1] - If the upward trend continues into Q4, the annual penetration rate is expected to reach a new high [1] Project Distribution - In 2025, 84% of new entrusted construction projects are located in second-tier cities, 15% in third- and fourth-tier cities, and only 1% in first-tier cities; the Yangtze River Delta region leads with a 40% share [2] - Guangzhou has the highest number of entrusted construction projects among first-tier cities, with 9 projects, followed by Shanghai with 5, and Shenzhen and Beijing with 3 and 2, respectively [5] Second-Tier City Performance - The penetration rate in second-tier cities reached 9.89% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 2.13 percentage points compared to 2024, making it the only tier to see significant growth [6] - Cities like Suzhou and Tianjin have penetration rates exceeding 30%, with Suzhou at 38.5% [8] Third- and Fourth-Tier City Trends - The penetration rate in third- and fourth-tier cities decreased to 6.15% in the first three quarters of 2025, down 1.67 percentage points from 2024, largely influenced by individual city performance [11] - Despite the current decline, there are long-term opportunities in these cities, particularly in areas like the Pearl River Delta [15] Competitive Landscape - The competition in second-tier cities is intensifying, making it crucial for companies to establish a presence in promising third- and fourth-tier cities or explore niche markets in first- and second-tier cities [17]