2026年购置税补贴减半，预计电车销量仍可维持中高个位数增长

Core Insights - The Chinese government has extended the exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles (NEVs) multiple times since August 1, 2014, with no limit on the exemption amount from September 1, 2014, to the end of 2023 [1][2] - From 2024 to the end of 2025, NEVs will continue to be exempt from vehicle purchase tax, but the exemption amount will be capped at 30,000 yuan per vehicle [2] - The purchase tax subsidy for NEVs is set to be halved in 2026, with a maximum exemption of 15,000 yuan per vehicle during 2026-2027 [2][3] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The vehicle purchase tax exemption for NEVs will see a significant reduction starting in 2026, with the subsidy amount being halved and stricter technical requirements for vehicles [2][3] - The pure electric range requirement for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will increase from a minimum of 43 km (2021-2025) to 100 km (2026-2027) [2] Market Impact - Approximately 90% of NEV consumers will be significantly affected by the halving of the purchase tax subsidy, particularly those purchasing lower-priced models [3] - The reduction in subsidies will have the most substantial impact on vehicles priced below 450,000 yuan, which account for about 95% of NEV sales [3] Sales Projections - Despite the subsidy reduction, the NEV penetration rate is expected to maintain a slight growth of a few percentage points in 2026, driven by quality supply and potential support from manufacturers and dealers [4] - The projected number of NEV registrations in 2025 is expected to reach 12.83 million, a year-on-year increase of 19%, with 2026 expected to see a 9% growth [4] Investment Opportunities - Companies less affected by the subsidy reduction include high-end automakers such as Jianghuai Automobile [5] - Firms with strong new vehicle cycles that can offset the impact of subsidy reductions include Geely Automobile, SAIC Group, BAIC Blue Valley, and Leap Motor [5] - Companies leveraging technological innovations like autonomous driving to create additional demand include Li Auto-W and Xpeng Motors-W [5]