国际能源署发布《2025年可再生能源》报告

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global renewable energy generation capacity will double by 2030, increasing by 4600 GW, with solar power accounting for nearly 80% of this growth [1][2]. Group 1: Renewable Energy Growth - By 2030, global renewable energy generation capacity is expected to double, adding 4600 GW, equivalent to the total generation capacity of China, the EU, and Japan combined [1]. - Solar photovoltaic capacity is projected to more than double, leading the growth in renewable energy due to low costs, faster approval processes, and broad social acceptance [2]. - Wind energy capacity is also expected to nearly double, reaching over 2000 GW, despite facing supply chain issues and rising costs [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact and Regional Variations - The growth forecast for global renewable energy capacity has been slightly downgraded by 5% due to policy changes in the US and China, with the US forecast reduced by nearly 50% [2][3]. - India is expected to become the second-largest growth market for renewable energy, with capacity projected to increase 2.5 times by 2030, driven by higher bidding volumes and support for rooftop solar projects [3]. - The Middle East and North Africa region saw a 25% upward revision in forecasts, primarily due to rapid solar growth in Saudi Arabia [3]. Group 3: Financial Challenges in the Industry - Major manufacturers of solar and wind energy report significant losses, with solar prices in China dropping over 60% since 2023, leading to a profit margin of -10% for the largest manufacturers [4][5]. - Despite financial challenges, renewable energy developers have maintained or increased their deployment targets for 2030, with 20% of surveyed developers raising their goals [5]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Integration Challenges - The offshore wind industry faces multiple challenges, with growth forecasts downgraded by over 25% due to policy shifts and rising costs [6]. - The supply chain for solar photovoltaic and wind turbine components is highly concentrated in a single country, raising supply chain security risks [6]. - By 2030, intermittent renewable energy is expected to supply nearly 30% of global electricity, necessitating increased flexibility and investment in grid infrastructure [6]. Group 5: Renewable Energy in Heat and Transport - The share of renewable energy in transport energy demand is projected to rise from 4% to 6% by 2030, driven by electric vehicle usage and liquid biofuels [7]. - Renewable energy is expected to account for 18% of global heat demand by 2030, up from 14%, with a 42% increase in renewable heat consumption primarily from industrial and building sectors [7].