泓德基金：上周上证指数一度突破4000点关口，创出本轮行情新高

Market Overview - The domestic equity market showed a rebound and slight fluctuations in October, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points, reaching a new high in the current market cycle [1] - The ChiNext, CSI 2000, and CSI 1000 indices experienced increases, while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech saw declines [1] Market Performance - Since September 24, 2022, major broad-based indices have averaged a rise of over 60%, with AI-related tech stocks doubling in value [2] - Compared to historical bull markets (2005-2007 and 2013-2015), the current rebound is relatively moderate [2] Fund Flows - Since October 2023, the China Securities Finance Corporation has invested over 1 trillion yuan in ETFs, boosting investor confidence during market volatility [3] - The net increase in margin financing has reached 1.1 trillion yuan since September 24, 2022, indicating strong optimism among high-net-worth investors [3] - Public funds have seen a net increase of 270 billion shares in stock and mixed funds compared to September 2022 [3] Valuation Levels - As of now, the CSI 300 is trading at a 14x PE ratio, while the total A-share market is at 22x PE, which is not considered expensive compared to global markets trading above 25x PE [3] - The valuation percentiles for the CSI 300 and total A-shares are at 79% and 87% respectively, indicating relatively high valuation levels since 2010 [3] Bond Market Insights - The bond market experienced positive sentiment due to the central bank's announcement to resume government bond trading, alongside other supportive factors [4] - The expectation of interest rate cuts may lead to a more flexible stimulus approach, potentially reviving trading in the bond market [4]