股市面面观｜黄金饰品股集体下挫 黄金消费市场或面临重构

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a new tax policy on gold trading has led to a significant decline in the stock prices of major gold retail brands in Hong Kong, with analysts indicating that the policy is the direct cause of this downturn [2][3]. Impact on Gold Retail Companies - Major gold retail brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Lao Pu Gold, and Luk Fook have seen stock declines of nearly 9%, 7%, and over 6% respectively due to the new tax regulations [2]. - The new tax policy differentiates between investment and non-investment gold, which is expected to pressure the profits of gold retail companies, particularly in the context of rising gold prices [2][3]. - The tax burden for retailers purchasing non-investment gold through exchanges will increase, as the input tax deduction rate decreases from 13% to 6%, leading to a potential profit squeeze [2][3]. Consumer Pricing and Market Dynamics - Retailers are likely to pass on the increased tax burden to consumers, resulting in higher costs for purchasing gold jewelry [3]. - For example, under the new tax policy, a retailer's tax liability on a sale of gold jewelry could increase significantly, impacting pricing strategies [3]. - Analysts predict that the cost increase for consumers could be around 60 yuan per gram due to the reduced input tax deduction [3]. Structural Changes in Gold Consumption - The new tax policy is expected to accelerate a restructuring of the gold consumption market, with consumers potentially shifting towards purchasing gold through exchange members to benefit from tax advantages [4]. - There is an anticipated migration of investment demand from physical gold to standardized financial products like gold ETFs and accumulative gold, which remain tax-exempt and offer higher liquidity [4]. - The policy may lead to a structural price adjustment in the gold market, favoring businesses focused on the physical gold supply chain while encouraging individual investors to explore compliant investment channels [4]. Bank Adjustments and Market Risks - Banks may need to adjust their operations and systems to comply with the new tax regulations, which could impact their gold-related business activities [5]. - Despite the changes in tax policy, analysts believe the direct impact on gold prices will be limited, as the core tax framework for on-exchange transactions remains unchanged [5].