11月3日大盘简评

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a rebound today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.55% to 3976.52 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.19% to 13404.06 points. The total trading volume exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, with over 3500 stocks gaining. The market sentiment is shifting from profit improvement expectations to verification of profit improvements, indicating a change in market style. A-shares remain undervalued compared to global markets, and the liquidity is expected to improve as the USD enters a rate-cutting cycle, maintaining a slow bull market outlook for A-shares [1]. Coal Industry - The coal industry saw an increase of 2.52% today. The fundamentals suggest that coal supply will strengthen in Q4, with resilient demand, making coal prices likely to rise. The coal sector has strong valuation certainty and significant dividend advantages, and as coal prices and performance elasticity materialize, the sector may benefit from a Davis double effect. In the medium to long term, the industry is expected to benefit from favorable factors such as "anti-involution" and state-owned enterprise market value management. It is recommended to pay attention to the Coal ETF (515220) for investment opportunities [1]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market rose by 0.97% to 26158.36 points, with a general strength in new energy vehicle companies. Sector-wise, the valuations of information technology, consumer discretionary, and utilities in the Hong Kong market are relatively low compared to A-shares and US stocks. The Hang Seng Technology Index offers good value. With external liquidity improving and capital inflows supporting the market, the outlook for Hong Kong stocks remains positive. It is recommended to continue allocating to the Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) and the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF (159712) [1]. Photovoltaic Industry - The Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) increased by 3.73% today. Recently, 17 leading polysilicon companies are set to establish a joint platform, marking substantial progress in supply-side reforms. The recent quarterly reports from major companies in the photovoltaic supply chain show a continuous narrowing of losses, with several leading firms exceeding performance expectations for Q3 2025. Policy-wise, the "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests unifying market rules to eliminate local protectionism and market fragmentation, addressing "involution" competition. The combination of policy support, market clearing, and technological iteration is expected to support the industry’s return to healthy operations. The end of the year may serve as a critical observation point for the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, with potential developments in silicon material mergers and production limits. Investors interested in this sector should keep an eye on the Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) [2]. Technology Sector - As Q4 begins, the sentiment for technology growth has fluctuated, leading to increased market volatility and a retreat in equity risk appetite, with some funds shifting from aggressive to defensive strategies. The dividend index, which has a high resource weight, is more sensitive to the leading gains in coal and oil & gas sectors. In the short term, the value of dividend-style allocations is highlighted during market fluctuations. In the long term, the new "National Nine Articles" guidance, combined with a decline in risk-free yields, indicates a higher allocation value for dividend assets. The Dividend State-Owned Enterprise ETF (510720) and Cash Flow ETF (159399) are recommended for ongoing evaluation of dividends [2].