TransUnion Report Reveals Diverging Credit Risk Trends Among U.S. Consumers

Core Insights - The recent Q3 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report from TransUnion indicates a growing divide in consumer credit risk, with some consumers showing financial resilience while others face challenges [1][5]. Consumer Credit Risk Trends - The percentage of individuals classified in the super prime credit risk tier has increased from 37.1% in Q3 2019 to 40.9% in Q3 2025, reflecting a total of approximately 16 million more super prime borrowers since 2019 [2][3]. - The subprime segment has returned to pre-pandemic levels after declines in 2020 and 2021, indicating a recovery in consumer financial health [2][5]. Credit Market Dynamics - The growth in super prime and subprime tiers is evident in credit card and auto lending markets, with year-over-year growth in new account originations and total balances being strongest in these segments [5][6]. - The credit card industry saw origination volumes rise for the third consecutive quarter, with a 9% year-over-year increase in Q2 2025, driven by super prime and subprime segments [9][12]. Credit Card Market Summary - As of Q3 2025, the total number of credit cards reached 574.4 million, with total credit card balances at $1.11 trillion and an average debt per borrower of $6,523 [10]. - Delinquency rates improved to 2.37%, down from 2.43% in Q3 2024, indicating healthier consumer credit behavior [10][12]. Unsecured Personal Loans - Unsecured personal loan originations reached 6.9 million in Q2 2025, marking a 26% year-over-year increase, with fintechs accounting for over 40% of these new loans [13][15]. - Total balances for unsecured personal loans hit a record $269 billion in Q3 2025, an 8% year-over-year increase [14][16]. Mortgage Market Trends - Mortgage originations increased by 8.8% year-over-year in Q2 2025, primarily driven by rate and term refinancing, which rose 101% year-over-year [20]. - The consumer-level delinquency rate for mortgages increased to 1.36% in Q3 2025, up from 1.24% a year prior, with FHA loans comprising the largest share of these delinquencies [21]. Auto Lending Insights - Auto loan originations rose 5.2% year-over-year to 6.7 million in Q3 2025, supported by Federal Reserve rate cuts [25]. - The average monthly payment for new vehicles increased to $769, while the delinquency rate for auto loans rose to 1.45% [24][26].