Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-11-03 13:21Core Viewpoint - The global chip price surge is intensifying, with TSMC planning to raise prices for advanced processes (below 7nm) by 3% to 10% in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of price increases [1][2][3] Group 1: TSMC Price Increase - TSMC has initiated annual negotiations with clients due to rising production costs and ongoing capacity shortages, with price increases expected for advanced processes starting from September [2][3] - The most sought-after 3nm process is anticipated to see at least a single-digit percentage increase in pricing [2] - This price hike is described as the first long-term increase since the onset of the AI era, potentially igniting a new wave of chip price increases [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the news, shares of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics surged, with SK Hynix rising nearly 11% and Samsung over 3%, reaching new historical highs [1] - A-shares related to storage chips also saw significant gains, with companies like Taiji Industry and Xiangnon Chip rising sharply [1] Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - Samsung has paused its October DDR5 DRAM contract pricing, prompting other memory manufacturers like SK Hynix and Micron to follow suit, with expectations for price negotiations to be delayed until mid-November [1][5] - The current market is characterized as a seller's market, with strict supply strategies from major manufacturers, limiting quotes to long-term clients only [5] Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Predictions indicate that DDR5 prices could see a "triple jump" increase of 30% to 50% from Q4 this year to the first half of next year, with potential prices reaching $30 for 16Gb DDR5 by mid-2026 [5][6] - The overall DRAM market is expected to experience price increases of 18% to 23% in Q4, with NAND Flash products also projected to rise by 5% to 10% [6] Group 5: AI Demand Impact - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is surging due to AI applications, with significant increases in requirements from data center projects like OpenAI's [6] - Analysts predict that the storage industry is entering a new upward cycle driven by AI, with expectations for continued growth in DRAM and NAND Flash prices through 2026 [6]