“高市早苗经济学”面临哪些挑战？ 中日学者这么说

Core Viewpoint - The "Kishida Economic Policy" faces significant challenges, including internal fiscal and monetary policy dilemmas, rising prices impacting citizens, and uncertainties in US-Japan tariff negotiations [1] Price Increase Impact - Japan has experienced a trend of rising prices after three decades of deflation, with the Tokyo core consumer price index rising by 2.8% year-on-year as of October 31, exceeding previous expectations [2] - Despite a 5.4% wage increase agreement in 2025, real wage income continues to decline due to inflation, necessitating at least a 3% wage growth over the next two years to meet sustainable inflation targets [2][3] - The number of bankrupt companies with debts exceeding 10 million yen reached 4,990 in the first half of 2025, marking a 1% increase from the previous year, highlighting the financial strain on small and medium-sized enterprises [3] Demographic Challenges - Japan's total population is projected to decline by approximately 554,500 in 2024, continuing a 16-year downward trend, with the population dropping to a historical low of 120.65 million when excluding foreign residents [4] - The aging population and declining birth rates pose significant challenges, with social security expenditures projected to account for 33.1% of total government spending in the 2025 fiscal budget [4] - Labor shortages are identified as a structural issue, necessitating investment in human resources and reforms in employment practices to attract talent [5]