【环球财经】银河国际：美国关税豁免降低东盟风险 越南经济风险敞口仍高

Core Insights - The recent tariff exemption agreement reached on October 26 has benefited export products from Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, reducing overall tariff risks to their GDPs [1] - Despite the exemptions, Vietnam's economic risk exposure remains high, attributed to its export-oriented economy and heavy reliance on the U.S. market [1] Group 1: Tariff Exemption Agreement - The agreement allows Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia to provide favorable market access for U.S. goods, reducing tariffs on American products and facilitating commercial purchases, including LNG and aircraft [1] - Malaysia is identified as the primary beneficiary, with 63% of its export products receiving exemptions, while Thailand and Vietnam have 43% and 44% of their exports exempted, respectively [1] Group 2: Economic Risk Exposure - Vietnam's risk exposure in U.S. exports remains at 16.1% of its GDP, indicating significant vulnerability despite the tariff exemptions [1] - In contrast, Malaysia and Thailand's direct risk exposure has decreased to single digits, while Singapore and Indonesia, which did not receive the exemptions, maintain low risk exposure [2] Group 3: Potential Risks and Mitigation Strategies - The new agreement may lead to increased imports of U.S. goods, potentially impacting local industries and weakening the current account balance [2] - The report suggests that ASEAN countries are diversifying trade to mitigate adverse effects, including pursuing new trade agreements like the EUFTA and implementing domestic growth strategies [2]