Core Insights - The new tax regulations on gold trading will take effect from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, impacting the value-added tax (VAT) policies for standard gold traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] Tax Policy Changes - The new regulations will reduce the input tax deduction for non-investment gold jewelry companies from 13% to 6%, potentially increasing their costs [1][2] - Investment gold sales will still benefit from the VAT exemption for member units selling standard gold, maintaining their competitive edge [2][3] - Consumers purchasing gold jewelry are expected to face higher prices, with the extent of the increase depending on how much of the cost is passed on by jewelry companies [1][3] Market Reactions - Short-term effects may lead to an increase in gold prices, which could suppress physical demand, while long-term effects may help standardize the gold investment market and enhance its financial attributes [1][5] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have already seen significant increases, with brands like Lao Miao and Chow Tai Fook raising prices by approximately 63 to 62 CNY per gram [3] Changes in Purchasing Behavior - The new regulations may shift consumer purchasing behavior, with a potential move from off-exchange to on-exchange transactions for gold, as the latter offers tax advantages [5][6] - Consumers may prioritize purchasing investment-grade gold bars through exchange channels to benefit from tax exemptions, while the demand for jewelry may decline due to increased costs [6] Gold Price Impact - Following the announcement, gold prices experienced fluctuations, with spot gold initially dropping by 0.6% before rebounding [7] - The overall sentiment in the global market may be negatively affected by the changes in China's tax policy, despite the country's record demand for gold this year [8][9]