受季节性影响？10月制造业PMI回落至49.0%

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October decreased to 49.0%, marking a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and interrupting the upward trend observed since August [1] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The decline in the manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, with historical data showing that October typically experiences a decrease [2] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 49.7%, entering a contraction zone for the first time since April, largely due to fewer working days caused by the Mid-Autumn Festival [2] - Excluding seasonal and festival-related factors, the PMI remains weak, with both supply and demand sides of the manufacturing sector declining [2] - The new orders index decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 48.8%, reflecting a reduced demand due to the waning effects of recent policies aimed at stimulating the manufacturing market [2] External Influences - The impact of high tariffs from the U.S. on global trade and China's exports is evident, with the new export orders index dropping by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9% [3] - Some industries are implementing "anti-involution" measures, which may restrict capacity release and contribute to the significant decline in the production index [3] Market Development Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for October was 52.8%, indicating that most manufacturing companies maintain an optimistic outlook [4] - The acceleration of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to boost infrastructure investment, providing support for macroeconomic stability [4] - The manufacturing sectors, particularly non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, as well as railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment, have seen their expectation indices rise above 60%, indicating a high level of activity [4] Industry Confidence - The demand for non-ferrous metals is being driven by the ongoing economic transformation towards digitalization and green initiatives, particularly in the renewable energy sector [5] - The railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace sectors are experiencing significant upgrades, with China's shipbuilding industry capturing 64.2% of global new ship orders during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, an increase of 15.1 percentage points from the previous period [5]