Shen Zhen Shang Bao·2025-11-03 16:21Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing significant performance differentiation among major listed companies, driven by the ongoing effects of the "anti-involution" policy, leading to a shift from scale expansion to quality upgrades in operations [1][4]. Performance Differentiation - The total express delivery volume in China reached 1,450.8 billion pieces in the first three quarters of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, with total revenue of 1,085.74 billion yuan, up 8.9% [1]. - Shentong Express led the growth with a revenue of 38.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.17%, and a net profit of 756 million yuan, up 15.81%, showing strong profitability [1]. - YTO Express, benefiting from scale advantages, reported a revenue of 54.156 billion yuan, a 9.69% increase, and a net profit of 2.877 billion yuan, with a 10.97% growth in the third quarter [1]. - SF Holding achieved a revenue growth of 8.89% to 83.08 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 9.07% [2]. - Yunda Holdings faced significant pressure, with a revenue of 37.493 billion yuan, a 5.59% increase, and a net profit of 730 million yuan, down 48.15% [2]. Market Share and Competitive Landscape - In the third quarter, YTO Express held the largest market share at 15.05%, followed by Shentong Express at 13.18%, which surpassed Yunda [3]. - Yunda's business volume grew by 6.61% to 6.417 billion pieces, the slowest among the four major companies, with a market share of 13% [3]. - SF Holding's business volume surged by 33.4% to 4.31 billion pieces, significantly increasing its market share by 0.9 percentage points to 8.7% [3]. Pricing and Revenue Trends - The "anti-involution" policy has effectively curbed the long-standing price wars in the industry, leading to a stabilization and recovery in per-package revenue [3]. - In September, the per-package revenue for Shentong, YTO, and Yunda was 2.12 yuan, 2.21 yuan, and 2.02 yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 4.95%, 1.09%, and 0.5% [3]. - SF Holding's per-package revenue was 13.87 yuan, slightly down year-on-year but up 0.60 yuan from the previous month, indicating ongoing optimization of its pricing structure [3]. Future Outlook - The industry anticipates continued effects from the "anti-involution" policy, leading to profit recovery for companies [4]. - Regulatory measures are expected to push companies towards quality upgrades, with several express companies already announcing price increases in response to market conditions [4]. - Historical trends suggest that after years of refined operations, express companies will have higher network efficiency and greater earnings elasticity, with price increases and stricter checks on low-priced packages likely to enhance profit margins [4].