Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-11-03 17:44Core Insights - The coal prices have significantly increased in the second half of the year, driven by supply-side policies and rising winter heating demand, leading to an improvement in the industry's fundamentals [1][2]. Price Trends - In the second half of the year, coal prices have cumulatively risen over 20%, with specific prices reported as follows: Qinhuangdao port Q4500 at 588 CNY/ton, Q5000 at 678 CNY/ton, and Q5500 at 770 CNY/ton, reflecting increases of 21.24%, 23.27%, and 23.99% respectively since July [2]. - The latest price for coking coal in North China reached 1581.25 CNY/ton, marking a 12.44% increase since mid-September [2]. Supply Dynamics - The primary driver of the recent coal price increase is a contraction in supply, initiated by the National Energy Administration's policy to check overproduction in the coal industry [2]. - A total of 22 central safety production assessment teams will conduct annual inspections across 31 provinces and regions starting November 2025 [2]. Demand Factors - As winter approaches, coal demand for heating and electricity is expected to rise, particularly in northern regions where centralized heating is being activated [3]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a modest recovery in global coal demand, with a 0.2% year-on-year increase expected in 2025, primarily driven by the electricity sector [3]. Industry Outlook - The coal industry is anticipated to enter a new upward cycle due to ongoing policy support for transformation and upgrades, as evidenced by the Henan provincial government's action plan for the coal sector [4]. - The plan includes optimizing resource allocation, enhancing equipment technology, and increasing the share of intelligent coal mines to 65% [4]. Financial Performance - The third-quarter profits of coal companies have rebounded significantly, with a total net profit of 299.42 billion CNY reported by 37 listed coal companies, reflecting a 22.83% quarter-on-quarter increase [5]. - Companies such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Sunan Co. reported a turnaround in profitability, while over 60% of companies showed improved earnings [5]. Dividend Trends - The coal sector has shown a growing willingness to distribute dividends, with 15 companies having a dividend yield exceeding 3%, representing over 40% of the total [5]. - Jizhong Energy leads with a dividend yield of 9.74%, followed by Pingmei Shenma and Hengyuan Coal Power at 6.67% and 6.53% respectively [5]. Company Highlights - Jizhong Energy reported the highest quarter-on-quarter profit growth of 102.69%, achieving a net profit of 0.59 billion CNY [6]. - The company has a long-standing commitment to cash dividends, having distributed a total of 190.15 billion CNY since its listing [6].