Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-11-03 17:44Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has been rising continuously due to unexpected demand and accelerated inventory depletion, indicating a potential recovery in the lithium carbonate industry after a challenging period [1][2]. Price Trends - Since mid-October, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures has increased from 72,000 yuan/ton to 82,280 yuan/ton, marking a rise of over 10,000 yuan/ton in just over half a month, which is a 14% increase [2][3]. - The price of lithium carbonate had previously dropped to as low as 50,000 yuan/ton due to significant capacity expansion and poor demand, but recent trends show a strong rebound [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand situation remains tight, with a notable increase in downstream purchasing needs, which is expected to create space for inventory replenishment after a period of strong demand [3][7]. - In October, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 6% month-on-month and 55% year-on-year, maintaining a high operating rate among lithium carbonate refineries [4]. Market Influences - The recent speculation about the resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo mine has led to increased price volatility for lithium carbonate [4]. - The ongoing strong demand from the new energy power battery and energy storage markets is a significant driver of the current price rebound, alongside expectations of winter production cuts from salt lakes [2][4]. Industry Outlook - Major lithium companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium have reported significant profit increases in Q3, indicating a recovery in the industry [6]. - The demand for energy storage is expected to surpass that of power batteries by 2026, positioning it as the primary source of demand for lithium carbonate [6]. - Analysts predict that the current tight supply situation will continue, with potential price increases to above 90,000 yuan/ton in the medium to long term [6].