Fed's Goolsbee says he has a higher threshold for a December rate cut

Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - The central bank is cautious about front-loading rate cuts due to concerns over inflation and the job market, indicating a need for more data before making decisions [1][6][22] - There is a belief that rates will ultimately settle lower than current levels, but the timing and conditions for cuts are still uncertain [3][23] - Recent inflation data shows core inflation running at an annualized rate of 3.6% and core services at 4%, raising concerns about the inflation trajectory [7][22] Job Market Insights - The job market is showing signs of uncertainty, with recent layoff announcements from major companies like Amazon and UPS, and a negative ADP measure for September [14][15] - Despite the slowdown in payroll growth, the unemployment rate has remained stable, suggesting that the labor market is not in immediate distress [10][11] - The hiring rate is low, which is particularly challenging for new graduates and young workers, indicating a unique economic situation where both hiring and firing rates are low [17][18] Sector-Specific Observations - The housing sector is identified as weak, which is typically sensitive to interest rates, while consumer durables and business investment remain resilient [25][26] - The overall economy is described as solid, driven by consumer confidence, despite weaknesses in certain sectors affected by tariffs [27]