“存款活化”遇上“到期窗口” 重定价助银行负债卸包袱

Core Insights - The attractiveness of wealth management products has increased as deposit rates decline, leading to a shift in asset allocation from traditional savings to diversified financial products [1][3][6] - A significant amount of high-interest deposits are maturing, prompting customers to invest in wealth management products, which is contributing to the growth of the wealth management market [2][3] - The trend of increasing demand for liquid deposits is changing the liability structure of banks, with a notable rise in the proportion of demand deposits [4][5] Wealth Management Market Growth - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total number of wealth management products in the market reached 43,900, a year-on-year increase of 10.01%, with a total scale of 32.13 trillion yuan, up 9.42% year-on-year [3] - The decline in deposit rates has led to a noticeable shift in customer behavior, with many opting for wealth management products that offer higher returns compared to traditional savings [2][3] Changes in Deposit Structure - The marginal improvement in demand deposits is evident, with a reported balance of 12.69 trillion yuan in demand deposits by the end of September 2025, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 502.3 billion yuan, or 4.12% [4][5] - The proportion of demand deposits has decreased by 1.21 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year, but the rate of decline has slowed, indicating a stabilization trend [5] Impact on Bank Profitability - The re-pricing of maturing high-interest deposits is expected to alleviate the pressure on net interest margins for banks, with potential downward adjustments in deposit interest rates by approximately 30 basis points per year [6][7] - The ongoing decline in deposit rates is anticipated to create new opportunities for monetary policy and capital markets, as banks can lower their funding costs [6][7]