Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-03 21:05Core Insights - The A-share liquor industry is experiencing significant performance divergence, with only Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu achieving both revenue and net profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, while 18 other companies reported declines in both metrics [1][2] Industry Performance - Kweichow Moutai reported revenue of 130.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a net profit of 64.63 billion yuan, up 6.25% [2] - Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue reached 8.96 billion yuan in Q3 2025, surpassing Wuliangye to become the second-largest in quarterly revenue [1][2] - Other major companies like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe saw revenue declines of 10.26%, 4%, and significant drops in net profits, with Luzhou Laojiao's net profit down 65.62% [2][3] Cash Flow and Inventory Issues - The industry is facing a contraction in operating cash flow, with several regional companies reporting negative cash flow, indicating financial strain [1][6] - Inventory levels remain high among leading companies, with Kweichow Moutai, Yanghe, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu all exceeding 10 billion yuan in inventory [3][4] - Luzhou Laojiao's inventory increased from 4.696 billion yuan at the end of 2020 to 13.747 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a 192.74% increase [4] Market Dynamics - The high inventory and sluggish sales have led to price pressures in the market, with some distributors resorting to discounting strategies to recover cash [5][6] - The industry is undergoing a "deep adjustment" phase, characterized by a shift from high growth to a focus on existing market share, leading to intensified competition among top players [1][3][6] - Shanxi Fenjiu's rise in revenue has disrupted the traditional ranking of the top three liquor companies, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics within the industry [6]