新路线图明确多项关键技术节点

Core Insights - The "Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" outlines seven major goals for China's automotive industry by 2040, focusing on low-carbon, electrification, and intelligence [1][2] Group 1: Industry Goals - By 2040, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to exceed 85%, with BEV (Battery Electric Vehicles) accounting for 80% [1] - The total carbon emissions from the automotive industry are projected to peak by 2028, ahead of national carbon reduction commitments, and decrease by over 60% from peak levels by 2040 [1] - The roadmap emphasizes the development of a traffic system based on intelligent connected new energy vehicles, aiming for "zero accidents, zero casualties, and high efficiency" [1] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The roadmap highlights the importance of diversified power sources, maximizing energy efficiency, and intelligent control methods in automotive energy-saving technologies [3] - A new key indicator for carbon emission intensity has been introduced, aiming for a 60% reduction in average carbon emission intensity of passenger vehicles by 2040 compared to 2024 [3] - The roadmap supports a dual strategy of oil and electricity, aligning with global energy concepts [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Internal combustion engines will remain a significant power source for vehicles in the next 5 to 15 years, with hybrid vehicles expected to account for about one-third of new passenger vehicle sales by 2040 [2] - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles is projected to reach around 75% by 2040, expanding from urban and short-distance applications to medium and long-distance scenarios [3][4] - Fuel cell vehicles are expected to grow from current sales to over 1 million units by 2040, with a total scale exceeding 4 million units [3] Group 4: Key Technology Milestones - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to achieve small-scale application by 2030 and large-scale global promotion by 2035, with improved performance, cost, and environmental adaptability [4] - Intelligent connected vehicles are expected to enter a rapid market development phase in the next 5 to 15 years [4]