Hopes to reshore manufacturing 'not working', says ISM Manufacturing PMI Chair

Economic Overview - The government shutdown has led to a lack of federal data, prompting the use of alternative data sources to assess the economy [1] - The Intuit QuickBooks small business index indicates a decline of over 24,000 jobs in businesses with nine or fewer employees, representing a monthly decrease of approximately 1% [2] Small Business Performance - Despite employment weakness, small business revenue increased by 1.9%, with average monthly revenue per business nearing $51,000 [3] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The ISM manufacturing index for October registered at 48.7%, indicating contraction for the eighth consecutive month [3] - Although prices paid decreased, inflation remains a concern, with tariffs causing unpredictability in future pricing and costs [4][5] - Demand indicators have shown slight improvements but remain in contraction, with production experiencing a significant drop [6][7] Employment Trends - The ratio of comments regarding hiring versus layoffs is concerning, with a shift from 1:3 to 1:3.4 in favor of layoffs [7][8] - Manufacturing GDP in strong contraction increased from 28% to 41%, indicating worsening conditions [8] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are reportedly delaying orders due to concerns over higher prices, impacting demand across various sectors [9][10] - The hope for reshoring manufacturing has not materialized as expected, leading to indecision among businesses [11] Sector-Specific Developments - The transportation equipment industry has finally moved to the expanding list after months of contraction, although customer ordering remains low [12][13] - There is a notable pattern across sectors regarding economic policy comments, indicating widespread concern [14]