美联储地方主席对政策路径看法存在分歧 两位官员认为12月仍存降息可能

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials are expressing differing views on interest rate cuts, with some supporting further reductions while others remain cautious due to inflation concerns and economic data uncertainty [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports the recent 25 basis point rate cut and suggests that a slight further reduction may be appropriate given inflation is currently around 3%, above the 2% target, but has significantly decreased [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee adopts a more hawkish stance, indicating he has not yet decided on supporting a rate cut in December and emphasizes that the threshold for further cuts is higher due to persistent inflation above target for four and a half years [1] - Fed Governor Cook leans dovish, stating that the December meeting remains a potential rate cut opportunity, highlighting the dual risks of rising inflation and employment [2] Group 2: Economic Data and Policy Implications - Daly notes that despite the government shutdown causing data gaps, the Fed can rely on various surveys and business communications to inform policy decisions, asserting that they are not operating blindly [1] - Goolsbee warns against premature rate cuts in the context of incomplete data and unclear inflation trends, stressing that rates should decline in line with inflation rather than in advance [1] - Cook acknowledges the challenges posed by data gaps but believes the Fed has sufficient private data and survey information to support policy research [2] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market currently anticipates a 50% probability of a rate cut in December, but the outlook for policy has become more uncertain due to missing economic data, unclear inflation trends, and varying speeds of employment cooling [2]