坚持“油电共进”——新路线图明确多项关键技术节点

Core Viewpoint - The "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" outlines seven major goals for China's automotive industry development by 2040, emphasizing low-carbon, electrification, and intelligence in automotive technology [1][2]. Group 1: Goals and Projections - By 2040, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to exceed 85%, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) accounting for 80% [1]. - The total carbon emissions from the automotive industry are projected to peak by 2028, ahead of national carbon reduction commitments, and decrease by over 60% from peak levels by 2040 [1]. - The roadmap anticipates that by 2040, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles will reach approximately 75% [3]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - The roadmap emphasizes the diversification of power sources, maximization of energy efficiency, and intelligent control methods in automotive energy-saving technologies [3]. - A new key indicator for carbon emission intensity has been introduced, aiming for a 60% reduction in average carbon emission intensity of passenger vehicles by 2040 compared to 2024 [3]. - Full solid-state batteries are expected to achieve small-scale application by 2030 and large-scale global promotion by 2035, enhancing performance, cost, and environmental adaptability [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The internal combustion engine will remain a significant power source for vehicles in the next 5 to 15 years, with hybrid vehicles (HEV, PHEV, REEV) expected to account for about one-third of new passenger vehicle sales by 2040 [2]. - The roadmap supports a dual strategy of oil and electricity, aligning with global energy concepts and emphasizing the importance of both energy sources in the transition [3].