黄金税收新政下，市场观望明显，金店不愿出货

Core Viewpoint - The new tax policy on gold significantly impacts the physical gold trading market, leading to increased prices and a shift in trading dynamics, with a focus on compliance and regulation [2][4][6]. Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy, effective from November 1, 2025, clarifies the distinction between "investment gold" and "non-investment gold," with different tax treatments based on whether physical delivery occurs [2][4][6]. - Transactions through the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange will be exempt from value-added tax (VAT) if no physical delivery occurs, while different rules apply for physical delivery based on the intended use of the gold [3][4][5]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the tax policy, physical gold prices surged, with retail prices exceeding the market benchmark by over 100 yuan per gram, reflecting the inclusion of tax costs [2][9]. - Retail gold brands experienced a significant drop in stock prices, indicating market apprehension regarding the new tax implications [7]. Trading Behavior Changes - The new tax regulations have led to a cautious approach among gold retailers and recovery merchants, with many slowing down their sales and purchases due to uncertainty about future costs [2][10]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards compliance, with a reduction in speculative trading and an emphasis on legitimate investment channels [4][7]. Price Adjustments - Major gold brands have raised their prices by approximately 60 to 70 yuan per gram in response to the new tax policy, indicating a direct pass-through of tax costs to consumers [8][9]. - The concept of "market price gold" is becoming obsolete, as retail prices now reflect tax-inclusive costs, leading to a potential decrease in consumer purchasing enthusiasm [9][10].