Third Point Q3 2025 Investor Letter (TPNTF)

Core Insights - Third Point's Offshore Fund returned 3.2% net in Q3, underperforming compared to the S&P 500 Index which returned 8.1% [2][3] - The fund's annualized return since inception is 13.2%, indicating strong long-term performance despite recent quarterly challenges [3] Portfolio Performance - Top five winners for the quarter included TSMC, Nvidia, CRH PLC, Comfort Systems USA, and Pacific Gas and Electric [4] - Major losses were seen in Kenvue, DSV A/S, Primo Brands, London Stock Exchange Group, and Flutter Entertainment, with overall performance below expectations due to weak event-driven positions [4] Market Trends - The equity market in 2025 is characterized by increasing concentration, particularly in gold and AI-related stocks, with structural problems noted in various sectors [5] - The demand for AI compute has accelerated, driven by advancements in model architectures and user engagement, benefiting investments in semiconductor companies like TSMC and Nvidia [6][8] Investment Opportunities - Third Point has invested in SK Hynix and Ebara, viewing them as undervalued leaders in their respective sectors, particularly benefiting from the AI buildout [9][12] - SK Hynix holds over 50% market share in high bandwidth memory (HBM), which is expected to grow significantly, contributing to a larger portion of the company's revenue [10][11] - Ebara is positioned well in the semiconductor production equipment market, particularly with its CMP tools, which are critical for advanced semiconductor manufacturing [13][14] Credit Market Insights - The credit market has shown resilience, with specific distressed trading opportunities arising from events in the subprime auto sector [17][18] - Third Point's corporate credit strategy has rebounded, achieving a 4.0% gross return in Q3, with significant contributions from companies like Michaels and exposure to Elon Musk's ventures [20][23] Business Updates - New team members have joined the equities team, enhancing the firm's analytical capabilities [29]