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Core Insights - The auction growth rate for electric vehicle accident cars is conservatively expected to exceed 50% from 2025 to 2028, driven by the increasing volume of used cars entering the market due to trade-in and scrapping policies [1][2] Auction Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of used cars in China reached 9.57 million units, with a transaction value exceeding 600 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 2% [1] - Traditional fuel vehicles dominated the auction market in 2024, with over 1.11 million units sold, accounting for more than 90% of the total market share [1] - The auction market is increasingly utilizing a "packaged" auction format for new energy vehicles, with packages often containing dozens to hundreds of similar vehicles [1] Accident Vehicle Auction Trends - The auction volume of accident vehicles has been steadily increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of 27% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 530,000 units in 2024 [3] - Electric vehicle accident cars have seen a significant rise in auction volume, with a compound annual growth rate of 70% from 2019 to 2024, increasing from 2,300 units in 2020 to 18,000 units in 2024 [3][4] Market Dynamics and Pricing - The average auction price for vehicles in the national market dropped by over 11% year-on-year in 2024, with the average price being 40,000 yuan per vehicle [5] - The market is experiencing a polarization in pricing, with vehicles priced below 50,000 yuan accounting for 78.86% of total transactions, while those priced at 200,000 yuan or above have decreased to 2.42% of the market share [5] - The average auction price for different vehicle types in 2024 was 38,700 yuan for fuel vehicles, 46,400 yuan for pure electric vehicles, and 61,100 yuan for hybrid models, all showing a decline compared to 2023 [6] Future Projections - The auction market for electric vehicle accident cars is expected to reach at least 50,000 units by 2029, with a growing trend towards the disassembly and sale of key components from accident vehicles [4] - The demand for dismantling accident vehicles is projected to grow significantly, with the auction volume for dismantled vehicles increasing from 5,400 units in 2020 to 24,500 units in 2024, and expected to approach a 40% growth rate by 2028 [4]