TCL智家(002668)：数智升级+产品结构优化 Q3盈利能力同比明显改善

Core Viewpoint - TCL Smart Home reported a revenue of 14.35 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 980 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% [1] Revenue Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 4.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5% [1] - The external sales performance remained stable, while internal sales faced pressure, leading to a slight decline in quarterly revenue [1] - External sales volume for refrigerators (Ouma + TCL) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, while washing machines saw a significant increase of 43.4% year-on-year [2] Internal Sales Challenges - Internal sales volume for refrigerators decreased by 20.2% year-on-year, and washing machines saw a decline of 36.5% year-on-year, attributed to a shift in consumer preference towards mid-to-high-end products due to national subsidies [2] - The company plans to enhance product competitiveness through R&D and introduce new mid-to-high-end products to expand into emerging markets [2] Profitability Improvement - The net profit margin for Q3 was 7.0%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a 3.3 percentage point increase in gross margin [2] - The reduction in operating expense ratio by 1.7 percentage points, including decreases in financial and management expense ratios, contributed to improved profitability [2] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Operating cash flow for Q3 was 560 million yuan, showing stability with a slight year-on-year decrease [3] - The total cash and financial assets amounted to 5.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.3%, indicating a strong cash position [3] - Contract liabilities increased by 19.2% year-on-year to 440 million yuan, reflecting positive payment intentions from distributors [3] Investment Outlook - TCL Smart Home is positioned as a leading refrigerator exporter in China, focusing on global expansion and brand promotion in emerging markets [3] - The company is accelerating its smart transformation and optimizing production chains, which is expected to enhance profitability [3] - EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.10 yuan, 1.22 yuan, and 1.37 yuan respectively, with a target price of 13.20 yuan per share based on a 12x PE ratio [3]