《周末小结系列》：美联储“变脸”、中美缓和、金油回调

Group 1: US-China Relations - The recent US-China meeting is considered a success, with both sides achieving their objectives and reducing risks, leading to a consensus of "fighting without breaking" [2] - Market behavior showed a "buy the expectation" before the meeting and a "sell the fact" afterward, indicating that risk premiums have decreased but the trading direction was already established [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - The FOMC meeting revealed a rare hawkish shift from Powell, indicating that the Fed is more concerned about the labor market than inflation, which is no longer the primary focus [3][8] - Internal disagreements within the Fed regarding interest rate cuts were highlighted, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others opposed it [8][10] - The short-term interest rates are rebounding, contributing to a rise in the dollar index from around 95 to nearly 100, confirming previous expectations [5][8] Group 3: Market Reactions and Earnings Season - The current earnings season for US stocks is characterized as "not bad, but not impressive," with EPS exceeding expectations by only 2%, down from the historical average of 4% [13] - Investor reactions to positive news have become muted, as seen in Meta's earnings report, where increased capital expenditures did not excite the market due to concerns over demand uncertainty [18] Group 4: UK Economic Outlook - The UK is facing a potential early interest rate cut due to inflation rates falling below expectations, with the market currently pricing in a 25% probability of a cut, which is considered low [20][22] - The UK budget deficit is approximately £30 billion, and if the government opts for tax increases to cover this gap, it could suppress growth in the short term [22] Group 5: Commodity Markets - Gold prices are currently stabilizing around the $4000 mark, driven primarily by retail investor sentiment rather than institutional funds [23][24] - Oil prices are showing signs of recovery after a previous decline, with attention on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and potential actions regarding Venezuela that could impact supply [26][27]