现实格局偏弱 螺纹钢承压运行

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in rebar prices is primarily driven by positive macroeconomic factors, supply constraints due to production limits, and strong raw material costs, although the sustainability of this price increase is uncertain due to rising supply and weak demand [1][2][8]. Supply and Production - Rebar supply is on the rise, with weekly production reaching 2.1259 million tons as of October 31, an increase of 55,700 tons from the end of September [2]. - The production increase is mainly attributed to long-process steel mills, which have raised their output to 1.8308 million tons, a cumulative increase of 83,500 tons over the past two weeks [2]. - Short-process steel mills are maintaining stable production levels, with a weekly output of 295,100 tons, up 37,000 tons from the end of the month [2]. - Despite the production increase, the overall supply pressure is growing due to high inventory levels, with total rebar inventory at 6.0252 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6524 million tons or 37.79% [5]. Demand and Market Conditions - Rebar demand has shown seasonal improvement but remains weak, with weekly demand at 2.3219 million tons, down 88,800 tons from pre-holiday levels [7]. - Total rebar demand for October was 9.2727 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 136,010 tons or 12.79% [7]. - Daily transaction volumes for rebar have also declined, averaging 101,300 tons in October, down 1.13% month-on-month and 16.51% year-on-year [7]. - Although some downstream indicators like cement and concrete shipments have improved, the overall demand outlook remains weak due to ongoing challenges in the real estate sector and declining infrastructure investment [7]. Price Trends - Rebar futures prices experienced volatility, dropping to a low of 3,021 yuan per ton before rebounding to a high of 3,143 yuan per ton due to improved market sentiment [3]. - The current price movements are influenced by strong cost support from raw materials, but the fundamental market conditions do not indicate a substantial improvement, leading to concerns about the sustainability of price increases [8].