智通财经网·2025-11-04 03:04Core Insights - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that the liquor industry is experiencing significant revenue and profit declines, with Q3 2025 showing a decrease of 18% in revenue and 22% in profit, marking a challenging period for the industry [1][2] Industry Performance - In Q3 2025, the liquor industry reported revenues of 787 billion yuan, net profits of 280 billion yuan, and cash returns of 839 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 18.4%, 22.2%, and 26.7% respectively [2] - The industry is entering a "corporate endurance period," with major players like Wuliangye leading the way in clearing inventory, indicating a deep adjustment phase for financial reports [2] - Excluding Moutai, the revenue, net profit, and cash returns for the liquor industry in Q3 2025 were 389 billion yuan, 88 billion yuan, and 402 billion yuan, showing declines of 31.5%, 48.0%, and 44.1% respectively [2] Company-Specific Analysis - High-end liquor brands are facing significant policy impacts, with Moutai showing slight revenue growth while Wuliangye is signaling positive inventory clearance [3] - The performance of mid-range liquor brands is mixed, with Fenjiu showing growth due to product expansion and resource acquisition, while others like Shui Jing Fang and Shede continue to adjust [3] - The overall profitability of liquor companies is under pressure, with many experiencing a decline in profit margins and increased costs due to historical issues [3] Holdings Analysis - The proportion of white liquor holdings continues to decline, with the concentration of holdings in Moutai and Wuliangye increasing, while holdings in Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao are decreasing [4] - In Q3 2025, the heavy holding proportion of the white liquor sector fell by 1.0 percentage points to 4.0%, marking a significant adjustment from previous highs [4] - The concentration of holdings in Moutai and Wuliangye has risen, while other brands like Fenjiu and Gujing have seen a decrease in holding concentration [4]