硫黄十月行情“银变金”

Core Viewpoint - The sulfur market has experienced a significant price increase in October, contrary to the expected trends, with prices reaching new highs due to external market influences and declining domestic inventories [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The domestic sulfur mainstream transaction price has risen above 3100 yuan per ton, marking a recent high, with port prices reaching 3440 yuan, reflecting an increase of over 31% since September [1]. - The international sulfur market has seen a surge in prices driven by strong demand and limited supply, particularly from Indonesia, where prices have escalated from CFR 278-280 USD per ton in mid-August to CFR 400 USD by late October [2]. - The domestic sulfur market has gained momentum from external price increases, with the main sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port rising to 3460 yuan by October 31, a 26% increase since the National Day holiday [2]. Group 2: Inventory Trends - Domestic sulfur port inventories have been declining, with a reported decrease of 3.19% to 229.89 million tons as of October 29 [4]. - The Longjiang region has seen a reduction in sulfur imports, contributing to the rising prices, with only about 12,000 tons of sulfur scheduled to arrive in October [4]. - The ongoing decline in port inventories is expected to provide a supportive foundation for future sulfur price increases [4]. Group 3: Trader Sentiment - Traders are exhibiting a bullish sentiment, holding onto their stocks in anticipation of further price increases, influenced by reduced import sources and domestic supply [5]. - The high international prices have discouraged traders from selling off their stocks prematurely, as they expect sustained high prices due to geopolitical factors [5]. - The combination of long-term contract deliveries and the need for replenishment after maintenance of phosphate fertilizer facilities may further drive sulfur prices upward [5]. Group 4: Cautionary Perspectives - Some industry experts express caution regarding the sustainability of high sulfur prices, noting potential demand suppression from the adoption of alternative materials and a weakening phosphate fertilizer market [6]. - A decrease in order volumes at high price points and a growing wait-and-see attitude among downstream buyers may pose constraints on further price increases [6].