前10月地方政府借钱超9万亿 5000亿增量预计年底前落地

Core Viewpoint - Local governments in China have significantly increased their borrowing through the issuance of bonds, reaching a record high of approximately 9.1 trillion yuan in the first ten months of the year, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing the economy [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Trends - In the first ten months of this year, local government bond issuance totaled about 91,062 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 23% [1]. - The issuance of local government bonds accelerated notably in the first half of the year, but began to decline after July, with October's issuance at around 5,600 billion yuan, slightly above January's level [1][4]. - An additional 500 billion yuan in local government bonds has been authorized for issuance in mid-October, with 300 billion yuan aimed at enhancing local government financial capacity and 200 billion yuan for supporting key projects in major economic provinces [4]. Group 2: Use of Borrowed Funds - Approximately 60% of the funds raised through local government bonds in the first ten months were used for repaying old debts, while about 40% were allocated for major project construction [4][6]. - Of the 9.1 trillion yuan in bonds issued, around 4.7 trillion yuan were new bonds (up 2% year-on-year) and 4.4 trillion yuan were refinancing bonds (up 58% year-on-year) [4][6]. - The refinancing bonds are primarily used to repay maturing government bond principal and to replace hidden debts, thereby optimizing the debt structure and alleviating repayment pressure [5][6]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Project Allocation - In the first ten months, local governments issued approximately 1.25 trillion yuan in special new bonds specifically for resolving hidden debts and settling overdue payments to enterprises [6]. - The total scale of "borrowing new to repay old" is about 5.65 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 62% of the total bond issuance during this period [6]. - The newly issued special bonds mainly focus on major public welfare projects, with about 27% allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 18% to transportation infrastructure, and 16% to land reserves [6]. Group 4: Debt Management and Safety - The overall risk of local government debt is considered manageable, with the total debt balance as of September 2025 being 53,699.5 billion yuan, well within the approved debt limit [7]. - In the first three quarters, local governments repaid 23,863 billion yuan in principal and paid 11,191 billion yuan in interest on bonds [7].