Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2025-11-04 06:37Core Viewpoint - The "Dachain" companies, which supply AI computing power infrastructure, are experiencing significant attention in the A-share market amid strong AI demand, despite recent stock price corrections following their Q3 2025 earnings reports [2][3]. Financial Performance - The Q3 2025 financial results show impressive year-on-year profit growth for several key players: - Shenghong Technology (归母净利润增长260.52%) - Xinyi Technology (205.38%) - Zhongji Xuchuang (124.98%) - Industrial Fulian (62.04%) - Invidk (8.35%) [3][4]. - However, many companies faced significant stock price declines post-earnings, with a combined market value loss exceeding 140 billion yuan for leading firms in the optical module segment [3][4]. Quarterly Trends - Several companies reported a decline in quarter-on-quarter performance: - Shenghong Technology's net profit decreased by 9.88% - Xinyi Technology's revenue fell by 4.97% - Tianfu Communication's revenue dropped by 3.18% - Invidk's revenue decreased by 11.44% [4][5]. - Xinyi Technology experienced its first revenue decline after nine consecutive quarters of growth, while Tianfu Communication also saw a decline after a period of growth [6]. Market Dynamics - The market is divided between bullish and bearish perspectives: - Bullish investors believe that capital expenditures from major North American cloud providers have not peaked, suggesting continued growth for "Dachain" companies. - Bearish investors argue that current stock prices have already priced in future expectations, making corrections reasonable [3][4]. Inventory and Financial Pressure - Companies are facing financial pressure due to increased inventory levels: - Industrial Fulian's inventory reached 164.66 billion yuan, up from 85.27 billion yuan at the end of 2024. - Xinyi Technology's inventory increased by 59.79% to 6.60 billion yuan [10][11]. - This inventory surge has led to significant asset impairment losses for companies like Xinyi Technology and Tianfu Communication [11]. Shareholder Behavior - There has been a notable increase in shareholding among retail investors, while major shareholders and executives have begun to reduce their stakes: - Xinyi Technology's shareholder count surged by 58.46% to 155,300. - Invidk's shareholder count increased by 129.66% [12]. Future Outlook - Market analysts predict that global AI server shipments will continue to grow, with an expected increase of over 20% in 2026, despite a downward adjustment for 2025 due to delays in product launches [13]. - The value of AI servers is projected to grow significantly, with a nearly 48% increase expected in 2025, driven by higher-priced integrated solutions [13][14].