Core Viewpoint - The domestic import price of rapeseed oil is expected to decline in November due to low demand and increased supply from Canada and Russia [2][10]. Group 1: Supply and Price Dynamics - Domestic rapeseed oil production is low due to reduced inventory of imported rapeseed, but there is an expectation of increased imports [2]. - Canadian rapeseed prices have decreased, with an average price of 616 CAD/ton in October, down 1.12% from September [3]. - The slow export pace and rising inventory pressure in Canada are contributing to the downward trend in rapeseed prices [3]. - The cost of imported rapeseed has decreased to an average of 3991 CNY/ton in October, a reduction of 1.99% from September [5]. Group 2: Import Expectations - Russia's new rapeseed crop is expected to increase by 14.89% to 5.4 million tons, leading to higher domestic rapeseed oil production [7]. - Domestic rapeseed oil imports are projected to rise to 226,000 tons in November, an increase of 26.26% month-on-month and 13.57% year-on-year [7]. Group 3: Demand Trends - The downstream market has not yet initiated pre-holiday stocking, leading to a decrease in rapeseed oil demand [8]. - November's domestic rapeseed oil demand is expected to be 237,000 tons, a decrease of 26.85% month-on-month and 44.76% year-on-year [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Overall, the increase in import supply coupled with reduced demand is expected to negatively impact the domestic rapeseed oil market, with prices projected to average around 10,050 CNY/ton in November, down 2.32% [10].
备货需求未启、菜油进口量预增 国内菜籽油价格11月或仍有下跌预期
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-11-04 07:05